By: Kirk Fansher
Ukraine did not just resist invasion; it shattered Western assumptions. In the weeks leading up to Russia’s 2022 invasion, the dominant view across Europe and the United States was that Ukraine would fall quickly. When Ukrainian forces held, the West was forced to improvise in real time, exposing how thin its strategic preparation had become.
Policy planning reflected that belief. Governments prepared for escalation management, energy disruption, and post-conflict instability not for sustained deterrence or a prolonged, high intensity war. This failure was neither accidental nor confined to a single capital or political party. It was the result of long-standing policy choices, alliance design decisions, and a shared belief that restraint could substitute for credible deterrence.
