No Treaty, No Panic: Deterrence and Stability After New START

By: Curtis McGiffin

The expiration of the New START Treaty on February 5, 2026 has fueled concerns that, absent formal limits, uncertainty surrounding U.S. and Russian nuclear forces could generate instability and elevate the risk of arms racing or the threat of nuclear conflict. Although arms control agreements have historically been promoted as acts of transparency and predictability, New START has not been a preeminent example. The end of New START does not threaten global security or stability. A world without the treaty will remain safe and stable because strategic deterrence remains effective!