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The National Institute for Deterrence Studies (NIDS)

What is Deterrence?

Deterrence is the condition made or maintained by the deliberate expression of a credible threat designed to shape the perceptions of an adversary through fear of consequence or failure.

In simple language, it is a condition that makes “The juice not worth the squeeze.”

This condition is made possible if:

  1. The ability to complete the threat is present. (e.g. military force, technology showcase, public and private communications)
  2. The will, intent, or resolve, must be present. (e.g. effective controls and decision-making structure and strategy)
  3. The threat is effectively communicated to the adversary. (e.g. capability demonstrations, diplomatic dialogue, public broadcasts and publications)

Deterrence approaches are based upon the desired outcome and the knowledge of the adversary:

  • Deterrence by Punishment
  • Deterrence by denial
  • Deterrence by delegitimization

History reveals that nuclear weapons play a major role in a national deterrence strategy, thus preserving peace and preventing the cost of great war. During the cold war, nuclear deterrence was highlighted in civil defense, news and periodicals, and even in popular media. Following the end of the cold war, the function and value of our nuclear deterrent was “lost on our citizens.”

However, the nuclear deterrent is:

  • Used every minute of every day
  • Provides a low cost for averting war and preserving our freedoms
  • Is being modernized with the latest, state-of-the-art technologies.

5 purposes of a Deterrence Strategy:

  1. Determine and detect the existence and magnitude of a potential attack threat.
  2. Possess an effective retaliatory capability and capacity to deter attack.
  3. Organize and effectuate the strategic and regional nuclear deterrent.
  4. Coordinate damage limitation approaches and capabilities.
  5. Institute methodologies to manage escalation and/or avert war.

Resilience

  1. Survive the initial attack or attack sequence (kinetic and non-kinetic effects).
  2. Recover from the initial loss in a degraded environment.
  3. Endure and reconstitute state COOP/COG in a recovering environment.
    • Redundancy = alternate methods, auxiliary systems, additional equipment
    • Hardening = increasing the ability to survive through design
    • Avoidance = evade damage through deception, depth, or defense
    • Preparation = planning, practice, and provision

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