Why and How ISIS Leaders Might Exploit Putin’s Nuclear Compellence to Destroy Russia

In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear posture. He indicated that any conventional attack on Russian soil, particularly with the backing of a nuclear power like the United States or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), could be treated as justification for a nuclear response.

These efforts at nuclear compellence, using the threat of escalation to coerce NATO to limit its support for Ukraine, introduce dangerous loopholes that can be exploited by non-state jihadi actors such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, who possess no stake in global stability and are religiously motivated to see the downfall of a global order they view as sinful. These loopholes can be exploited via a false flag attack by imitating what appears to be (but is not) a NATO-backed conventional weapons attack on Moscow with the deliberate intent of triggering a nuclear war.

Jihadi terrorists, unlike state actors, do not seek to maintain a status quo. They are apocalyptically motivated, seeking to bring about the conditions for their version of an Islamic caliphate.